Risk or Resilience? What Makes a Difference?

Dropping out of school has been associated with a student’s ethnicity, socioeconomic status, challenging behaviours and low academic achievement. This paper describes research conducted with 1050 students aged 12-15, in three North Queensland urban high schools to investigate issues related to Indigenous and non-Indigenous students at risk of dropping out of school before gaining adequate qualifications. A path-analytic model was developed to assess the influence of socio-demographic, structural family and behavioural factors upon low academic achievement, the strongest predictor of dropping out of school. The specific hypothesis tested was that challenging behaviour, indexed by suspensions, predicts low academic achievement or at-risk status, more strongly than SES or family structure variables. Results indicate that for both Indigenous and non-Indigenous students, suspensions are a stronger predictor of low achievement than socioeconomic or family factors. Moreover, a model testing low achievement as a precursor to suspensions was not supported. Suggestions for future practice and research are proposed. Introduction Headlines in Brisbane’s Courier-Mail on November 17th 2003 (Odgers, 2003) reported that 30 students are permanently excluded from Queensland government schools every week. This approximates to 1200 exclusions per year. Exclusions are strong indicators of a student at risk of dropping out of school (Batten & Russell, 1995). This paper reports results from an investigation into some of the factors associated with dropping out of school in two secondary school populations, Indigenous and nonIndigenous students. Students who drop out of school before completing their secondary education have been a cause for ongoing concern among educators, parents and the community at •81 The Australian Educational Researcher, Volume 35, Number 1, April 2008 large for a considerable time. Students might fail to complete their secondary education because they are disaffected with school. This disaffection has a number of manifestations including, absenteeism, disruptive classroom behaviour, and exclusions or suspensions from school. Students who leave school early have been shown to have an overall poorer quality of life, evidenced by a range of marginalised employment opportunities (McMillan & Marks, 2003), delinquent activities (Lane, 1999; Hinshaw, 1992; Rutter, Giller, & Hagell, 1998), and psychological, social and financial adjustment issues (Chamberlain & MacKenzie, 1996). A student perceived to be disaffected is said to be at-risk (Batten & Russell, 1995). The urgency of the issue is reflected in the number of students at risk of dropping out. This number is estimated by looking at apparent retention rates. These rates report the total number of students who stay on at school from Year 8 through to Year 12. Students at-risk, those who did not complete Year 12, are then estimated from these figures. Rothman (2004) summarized Australian retention trends: In 1967, the apparent retention rate in Australian schools was 22.7 percent. Over the next eight years, this rate grew to 34.1 percent, and then remained close to that point until 1982, when it began to increase again. Over the following ten years, the rate more than doubled, growing from 36.3 percent in 1982 to 77.1 percent in 1992. The rate peaked in 1992, and has remained above 72 percent into the 2000s. In 2002, the Year 7-12 apparent retention rate was 75.1 percent. (p. 113) The overall retention rate in Australia was 75.7 percent in 2004, while for Indigenous students it was only 39.5 percent, an increase from the 1993 Indigenous retention level of 25 percent (ABS, 2004). Although these rates show improvement, in a context where the compulsory phase of schooling in Australia determines that from 2006 an adolescent must complete Year 10, or remain in school until the age of 16, they are not good enough (Hill, Dawes, Boon & Hillman, 2005). We need to find ways to transform risk to resilience. To do that we need to know what renders students atrisk, and what characterises resilience. Neither of these questions is new. In 2000, Jimerson, Egeland, Sroufe and Carlson stated: Five decades of research have uncovered numerous correlates of withdrawal from high school. Prior research highlights various demographic status variables, individual characteristics, psychological and behavioural measures, and family factors associated with high school drop out. They are now well known but not always useful. (p. 526)